KOREA FOUNDATION

Kim Jeong-ki, Hanyang University Asia-Pacific Research Center

Central Asian countries are gravely concerned about the negative effect of the terrorist attacks in Afghanistan after the Taliban’s return to power. This undiminished sense of insecurity stems from ongoing internal purges in the form of executions and imprisonment in Afghanistan and from the growing possibility of Islamic extremists’ infiltration of Central Asia. The Taliban have stated that they will form an “open Islamic government” that encompasses all forces and groups, and emphasized that they have no intention to endanger their Central Asian neighbors. They are also contacting political forces inside and outside Afghanistan and trying to earn the support of the international community. However, it is not yet clear how the Taliban will deal with Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan, and it may be said that diverse threats still exist there.

In this regard, countries in Central Asia are concentrating their efforts on blocking the spread of security concerns from the rapid worsening of Afghanistan’s situation. The five countries in the region are strengthening their political and economic solidarity and striving to eliminate present and future security threats through partnerships with global powers and regional organizations for cooperation and consultation. It remains to be seen how these efforts will turn out under the given circumstances, but they seem to have achieved considerable preventive effects.

First, the summit leaders of the five countries are forging internal unity among themselves. In early August of this year, the leaders met at their third consultative meeting at a resort in Awaza, Turkmenistan, shortly before the Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan capital of Kabul. They discussed the potential aftermath of the Taliban’s return and socioeconomic preconditions for sustainable peace in Afghanistan in the coming days, and shared their views that the five Central Asian countries should join forces to establish a regional cooperative order. During their first summit in 2018, the presidents of the five countries stressed that they could ease security threats from Afghanistan by taking a broad perspective and expanding economic relations and trade with Afghanistan. In a nutshell, the Central Asian countries seem determined to cooperate to ease security threats as a united force.

Second, the Central Asian countries are strengthening security cooperation with the US in relation to Afghanistan’s situation. In mid-July, delegations from the US and the five Central Asian countries met at the high-level C5+1 conference on “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity, Challenges and Opportunities,” held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, where they discussed bolstering stability and peace in Afghanistan as well as regional security and stability. They reaffirmed that no forces occupying Afghan territory should be allowed to threaten or attack the C5+1 member states, and agreed to expedite cooperation with Afghanistan across security, energy, economy, trade, culture, and other fields. The C5+1 high-level dialogue held in June last year involved discussions focused on deterring the overflow of anxiety about political instability in Afghanistan, revealing that the US was committed to providing cooperation and support for easing Afghanistan-related security threats and political jitters in Central Asia.

Third, the Central Asian countries are stepping up security cooperation with Russia, discussing spillover from the Afghan situation. They are conducting joint military exercises with Russia on their borders with Afghanistan and seek security cooperation in terms of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). On July 7, Russia expressed its will to not allow attacks on CSTO member states through a statement by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and in the first half of August, it conducted six-day joint military drills with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan near the Afghan border. Russia, on its part, is anxious that Afghanistan’s situation may disrupt order in Central Asia and that the terrorist infiltration of the region may infringe upon Russian territory. President Vladimir Putin recently emphasized that the country should make its best efforts to block terrorism, the trafficking of narcotics, and religious extremism from Afghanistan. Putin also expressed disapproval of Central Asian countries’ accommodation of Afghan refugees, citing concerns about terrorists entering the countries under guise of seeking refuge.

Fourth, the Central Asian countries have been seeking Afghanistan-related security cooperation with the regional multilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), discussing the subject at the meeting of the SCO foreign ministers, held in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on July 13, the meeting of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group on July 14, and the SCO Summit on September 17. During those meetings, a consensus was formed that serious concerns had arisen over terrorist activity in Afghanistan and that peace and stability in the country were imperative for the regional security of the SCO bloc. Participating in the summit via videoconferencing, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed joint efforts to deal with terrorism and called for the strengthening of cooperation to block religious extremism, including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and to enhance counter-narcotics operations and border control. Beijing is worried about the possibility of the Taliban supporting the terror attacks in China mounted by the ETIM, whose goal is to establish an independent state replacing Xinjiang.

As observed so far, countries in Central Asia aim to build a regional cooperation framework, coordinating directions for dealing with imminent security issues through regular summit meetings. Simultaneously, they are pursuing diplomatic strategies to ease security threats by forming friendly and cooperative relations with world powers to mutually hold each other in check. In other words, the five Central Asian countries are conducting multi-layered diplomatic and security strategies that combine the principles of self-help in respective ways, assembling and disassembling the strategies in pursuit of their respective national interests and using the strategies to maintain their mutual effectiveness.

Particularly noteworthy is the prospect that in the near future, the Central Asian countries are highly likely to enhance their defense capabilities. Generally, they are seriously vulnerable in terms of combat power and military capabilities. Faced with extremism, terror, and drug trafficking, and having witnessed the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, they should realize the importance of unmanned aerial vehicles and other modernized systems and weapons. It seems that they will positively build up their military capabilities by seeking the introduction of defense equipment and support, while pursuing military cooperation with Russia, Turkey, China, and Israel.

Unlike in the past, the Central Asian countries are currently trying to solve the issues of conflicting interests in their region with a sense of mutual cooperation. The US is again reinforcing its strategic movement in Central Asia, and China and Russia are accelerating access to the region after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. The US-China hegemony competition will have flow-on effects for Central Asia, and the New Great Game involving the US, China, and Russia will intensify in the strategic sphere of Eurasia. All these developments need to be watched closely.

Central AsiaAfghanistan’s situationsecurity cooperation